Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.007303 0.008226 0.009235 0.010423 0.011787 0.013306 0.015131
2024-10-27 0.005684 0.006895 0.008336 0.010184 0.012509 0.015353 0.019127
2024-11-03 0.004901 0.006243 0.007929 0.010223 0.013293 0.017305 0.023014
2024-11-10 0.004494 0.005960 0.007887 0.010642 0.014531 0.019906 0.028040
2024-11-17 0.003990 0.005465 0.007481 0.010478 0.014902 0.021313 0.031536
2024-11-24 0.003646 0.005142 0.007255 0.010515 0.015524 0.023108 0.035807
2024-12-01 0.003293 0.004763 0.006899 0.010301 0.015719 0.024245 0.039163
2024-12-08 0.003104 0.004600 0.006838 0.010517 0.016585 0.026515 0.044677
2024-12-15 0.002886 0.004371 0.006650 0.010501 0.017061 0.028181 0.049366
2024-12-22 0.002601 0.004011 0.006220 0.010045 0.016737 0.028430 0.051501
2024-12-29 0.002431 0.003820 0.006044 0.009989 0.017089 0.029892 0.056107
2025-01-05 0.002384 0.003821 0.006179 0.010476 0.018453 0.033352 0.065152
2025-01-12 0.002175 0.003544 0.005832 0.010095 0.018213 0.033818 0.068299
2025-01-19 0.002008 0.003327 0.005573 0.009851 0.018210 0.034762 0.072658
2025-01-26 0.001904 0.003207 0.005473 0.009889 0.018753 0.036864 0.079926
2025-02-02 0.001863 0.003195 0.005562 0.010292 0.020073 0.040751 0.092028
2025-02-09 0.001746 0.003039 0.005374 0.010135 0.020213 0.042116 0.098308
2025-02-16 0.001666 0.002941 0.005288 0.010170 0.020762 0.044457 0.107469
2025-02-23 0.001562 0.002794 0.005094 0.009964 0.020759 0.045522 0.113485
2025-03-02 0.001516 0.002751 0.005098 0.010172 0.021701 0.048945 0.126568
2025-03-09 0.001448 0.002661 0.005003 0.010157 0.022130 0.051177 0.136763
2025-03-16 0.001340 0.002486 0.004723 0.009717 0.021513 0.050711 0.138982
2025-03-23 0.001279 0.002401 0.004622 0.009663 0.021815 0.052646 0.148861